Questions - Diaspora IV

[JB - Jontinius Bruin]

You challenged my use of the word first.

It is a rare event that because it happens so rarely (again 0-2 times in a 40 year span) that it can't be modeled properly.

It is an outlier.

Does it happen in

Out Fucking Lier.png (8.21 KiB) Viewed 219 times

See this?

Made with data in SAS in a statistics class. Had some occurrences of height of 190+ cm in my data set. But they aren't on the box plot. Do you know why? Because they are outliers. They lay at the outskirts of your data set. They happened, they exist, but they are located at the OUTER edges of the data set. They are OUTLIERS.

[WB - Water's Blessing]

The context of the entire discussion is how the war adventure rules should be handled re: risk for the participants. If you read what I've been saying, it should be easy to see my position is that casualties should be reasonably common, as in, battles with multiple regent deaths should happen frequently enough to be a regular occurrence, something we see in the average game, perhaps even more than once.

What argument are you trying to make, aside from the semantic one? If it's the same one I'm making, then what the heck are you doing?

The argument he is making is that your example is not a good one because it is atypical of the period so that it's not good evidence of the claim that nobles were frequently killed in battle is correct.

[TH - The Hunt]

Look, 'outlier' doesn't have an objective definition. When people talk about 'outliers' they're usually talking about things they want to exclude from their analysis because it would mess up the results that they want to get. 'Rare events' like these stop looking rare when you zoom out and stop looking at the space between them; in this case the decades of relative peace that tend to exist between major wars. The scale of this game is zoomed-out enough that, at the far end from 'outliers' like these being surprising, it's more strange if we don't see them happen.

We'd expect to see regent deaths in battle in other games in medieval (whether historical or fantasy) settings, including entire bloodlines getting wiped out at times, and if that can't happen, that means we won't see the full range of stories evolve that we'd expect to see.

There's a balance to it, if it happens too often it'll either be difficult to get invested in characters or almost no regents will fight on the battlefield, they'll all stay in their tents, which wouldn't be very appropriate for a medieval much less heroic fantasy setting.

If we 'can't' model events like these, I'd say either there's something wrong with our data set or something wrong with our attitude toward it.

[WB - Water's Blessing]

These events can happen, though. It's when people take a risk on a low-probability DC because it's their only shot at winning a key battle. The complaint isn't that players can't die. The complaint is that they're too cautious and don't put themselves in situations where they could die. I think that fits with the period. In general, nobles played it safe and played nice with each other. Sometimes they didn't, but most of the time they did. That is well-reflected in the DC risks, I think.

[WM - The Waste Mage]

If you had a time machine and went back in time even a few minutes wouldn't you come out in outer space? The time machine is sending you back in time in the place you are. But that place you are was in outer space back in time because the earth hadn't reached that point in space yet. Even a few seconds would be bad. You'd have to have a teleporter as well and know the exact point in space time down to the tiniest measurement where the spot you are was in any exact moment in time.

[TH - The Hunt]

Right now, the war adventures only create an extra unit. If they affected how well the army behind them fought--their morale, their ability to inflict or resist damage, and so on--maybe that would reward battlefield regents more.

Right now--distinct from war adventures, which represent fighting more than planning--we have no way for the cleverness, insight, or skills of regents to affect the tactical performance of their army. That removes most of the reason for regents and their best commanders to be in the same province where the most important battles are being fought. Though, right now, there's no risk to regents from being in the field unless they're targeted with an espionage action (or they're adventuring.)

[YK - Yuri Khavlor]

Outliers are notable because they are unique. In a modern setting, you would not make a list of battles that used firearms, but you would make a list of the uses of Atomic Bombs in war. A system that assumed nuclear war is 'routine' is a non-starter because they are outliers. (#3 https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/outlier) The occurrence of this happening would be a unique event requiring unique considerations.

In the context of this game, Nobles being captured should be a concern, Nobles being killed possible, and mass noble death should be a fluke (or story driven event). Not only from a historical simulation perspective but also from an enjoyable game design perspective.

I think the new system is fine maybe some tweaks, but we won't know until we have more data. My only concern is headhunting, 'Command-and-control' consists of banners and trumpets. So throwing an army at adventurer units should be a non-starter.

Base rules had auto-escape if an adventurer escapes automatically if their card was destroyed, and their card could stack with another unit to gain immunity from attacks. This is a PVP format so that is no longer the best game design.

I would like to have the option for a character to flee mid-battle. If their adventure unit is outnumbered or damaged but not destroyed they can default to 'unresolved' adventure and quit the adventure safely.

[CIC - Duke Cicero]

There could also be a chance that opposing regents find each other on the battlefield and face off in one on one combat.

We could also consider a modification of assassination to reflect hunting down a character on the battlefield.

[+] The Rules As Written:

Espionage - Assassination (cannot be used to divest)
Base Cost: 1 GB
DC: 20+
Opposition/Support: Guild/Law in province targeted can support or oppose. This takes place in the target's capital unless they are explicitly leading troops in war, at which point it takes place in the province they are fighting in.
Effect: If you succeed, you engage your fellow PC in a combat of equal footing. If you fail by greater than 15, you automatically die in the attempt at the hands of the target. If you fail by 15 or less; the target has up to 3 rounds to prepare, or wins initiative for up to 3 rounds or can avoid the attempt entirely, at their choice (they get 1 round per 5 you fail by). For each 5 you beat the DC by, you automatically win initiative for a round, or get 1 round of preparation.

Maybe when you're leading troops, your counter-espionage pool doesn't apply? Your CE pool covers when you're safe at home in your castle with your network of creepy little spy children, but all those defenses don't translate to the battlefield.

That would open the possibility of battlefield character death even if they're trying to be careful. You stay on the back lines? Hell, you stay in your command tent? A covert team sneaks up on you and poisons your battle wine. Or whatever. I know nothing about poisonings ...

[TF - The Fortress]

That was how it was previously for attacking into lands without your own holdings, your counter-espionage does not aid you.

As for battles...


My rule of thumb has been:

If they're doing DC0 to 1, they're in the rear with the gear.

If they're doing DC2 to 4, they're in the thick of it rallying warriors to the banner.

If they're doing DC5+, they're jumping the shield wall and breaking the enemy formation on their own.

[YK - Yuri Khavlor]

Assassination has been used for that purpose. Having the support of local Law and Guild is quite the swing, and makes the attempt reasonable. Counter-espionage pool would still need to apply or there would be no mechanical defence against an assassin.

Last Game Stepan assassinated the LTs of invaders of his domain.